Increase in measles cases anticipated in Russia by 2024

Increase in measles cases anticipated in Russia by 2024

In 2024, Russia faced a significant increase in measles cases, with a staggering 22,455 cases reported – a number 11 times higher than the annual average since 2012 and marking a 30-year record[1]. The outbreak predominantly affected children under 18 years old, with most cases occurring among those under one year.

The causes of this outbreak can be traced back to insufficient vaccination coverage, clusters in urban and vulnerable areas, and the susceptibility of infants. Despite Russia’s measles vaccination coverage previously being high (over 95% by some reports), gaps remained, especially among children and unvaccinated population groups[1][4]. The highest incidence was recorded in Moscow and the Republic of Dagestan, indicating localized outbreaks.

The effects of the measles outbreak were severe. Four deaths were reported among unvaccinated children, and measles causes serious complications such as pneumonia, encephalitis, and increases susceptibility to other infections due to immune system weakening[2]. The outbreak strained health resources and required urgent public health response.

However, intensive vaccination efforts have since helped stabilize the epidemic situation. Over the past six months of 2024, 74.3% of the vaccination plan was completed, with 50.4% revaccination coverage[1]. Targeted vaccination of unvaccinated persons and migrants was also implemented, with about 560,000 people vaccinated in cleansing immunization efforts, reaching 72% of the planned target in many regions[1]. Prompt immunization during outbreaks helped control spread, with over 90% of outbreaks not becoming widespread due to these interventions[1].

While the incidence rate of whooping cough in 2025 is 1.6 times lower than the level in 2023, it is 4.5 times higher than the average long-term rate. Vladimir Neronov, an infection specialist at AO "Meditsina" (Roytberg Clinic), attributes the previous years' surge in whooping cough cases to vaccination issues, including Russians refusing to vaccinate their children, temporary medical exemptions, and the replacement of vaccines with reduced formulations that do not provide full protection.

In 2024, there were 258 cases of rubella registered in Russia, with an incidence rate of 0.18 per 100,000 population. Despite Russia having been free from endemic rubella since 2017, there was an increase in rubella cases in 2024, mainly registered among adults.

In summary, the 2024 measles surge in Russia resulted mainly from pockets of under-immunized populations, particularly among children under one year. The whooping cough surge, on the other hand, can be attributed to vaccination issues. Maintaining >95% immunization coverage is essential for controlling both diseases.

References:

[1] Rospotrebnadzor, 2024 [2] World Health Organization, 2022 [3] Neronov, V., 2024 [4] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2022

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