Beating the Trump-China Tourism Slump: A Challenging Journey Ahead
Tourism in China is Facing a Downturn Due to Various Challenges
When it comes to travel, recent crises and conflicts have taken a heavier toll on China than the US. Despite this, airports in Germany continue to see an increase in passenger numbers on US routes – just after President Trump's re-election. In contrast, the Chinese travel market is experiencing a decrease.
The Global Travel Impact of Crises and Conflicts
Over the years, major crises and conflicts have left a negative impact on China's tourism industry, as compared to the US. Both Frankfurt and Munich airports have reported a surge in passengers on US flights, even following Trump's second inauguration. But the story changes when we look at traffic to China – a declining trend since 2019.
US Trade Framework: America versus China
America's interest in rare earths has played a significant role in U.S.-China relations, as they have recently agreed on a new trade framework. Germany, however, hasn't shown any clear Trump effect yet. Munich recorded nearly 1.2 million passengers on US flights from January to May, up by almost 37,000 compared to the previous year. Frankfurt too saw an increase of 7,600 passengers to 944,300 in the first four months, excluding May.
Expert Predictions: A Tough Year Ahead for US Tourism
Experts in the industry agree that the second term of President Trump could harm US tourism. Based on estimates by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) and Oxford Economics, the US is expected to suffer revenue losses of over $12 billion this year due to fewer foreign visitors.
The China Route: Cutbacks and Declining Passenger Numbers
On the China flight routes, passenger numbers have already started dropping this year. Munich reported a decline of 1,300 passengers to nearly 203,000 in the first five months. Frankfurt saw 180,300 flight passengers in the first four months – a drop of 27,000 compared to the previous year. This decrease is in part due to restricted flight offerings, as suggested by consulting firm BCG.
The Looming Impact of a Second Trump Term
Experts predict a further dip in US tourism under a second Trump term. The perceived hostility, strict immigration policies, and toughened border controls create a sense of unwelcomeness, discouraging foreign tourists, especially those from countries like China.
Sources: ntv.de, mbr/dpa
- USA
- China
- Tourism Industry
- Attack on Ukraine
Enrichment Insights:
- The anticipated impact of a potential second term for Donald Trump on the U.S. tourism industry, particularly from China, appears to be highly negative, based on existing trends and policy directions.
- Recent data depicts a significant decline in international arrivals to the U.S., down 11.6% in March 2025, with the tourism sector apprehending possible losses of $9 billion due to a combination of increasingly stringent immigration policies, intensified security screenings, and a perceived unfriendly political climate [1][3][4].
- Factors affecting travel from China follow the same patterns seen in overall international arrivals. The Trump administration's "America First" policies and stricter immigration controls give a feeling of hostility and bureaucratic hurdles, deterring foreign tourists, including those from China. The enhanced visa screening and tougher border enforcement are contributing to travelers feeling unwelcome or stressed upon arrival [1].
- The tourism downturn poses significant economic damage, with potential losses of up to $23 billion in GDP and about 230,000 jobs in sectors like dining, lodging, and entertainment. Since Chinese tourists are among the highest spenders internationally, a decline in their visitation would amplify these economic concerns [3][4].
- In addition to restrictive immigration policies, ongoing national security measures targeting foreign nationals, including those deemed high-risk countries, may continue to restrict Chinese travel to the U.S. during a second Trump administration [2].
Therefore, a second term for Trump is expected to intensify the challenges facing the U.S. tourism industry, particularly with regards to attracting Chinese travelers.
- The expected impact of a second Trump term on US tourism, particularly from China, seems highly negative, echoing the trend of stricter immigration policies and perceived hostility deterring foreign tourists.
- Given the anticipated economic consequences of declining Chinese tourism, the US tourism industry, including sectors like dining, lodging, and entertainment, may suffer potential losses of up to $23 billion in GDP and around 230,000 jobs.
